Building an electricity grid fit for the future
BY MARK NELLER
“Our research shows that ambitious grid investment is a catalyst for economic growth, job creation, and energy security. The choices we make today will determine the pace and success of the UK’s energy transition. Unlocking the benefits depends as much on how we deliver as on what we invest. By investing wisely, designing boldly, and delivering with purpose, we can unlock a more affordable, secure, and clean energy system for all ”.
The UK stands at a pivotal moment in its energy transition. As electrification accelerates across homes, transport, industry and digital infrastructure, our electricity grid faces significant pressures that it was never designed to manage. Modernising and expanding the grid is crucial to decarbonise and meet evolving demands, but if done ambitiously, it can also unlock significant and widespread socioeconomic benefits for the UK.
If we invest an additional £34 billion in the grid over the next 15 years, there is the potential to unlock £194 billion in additional Gross Value Added (GVA) for the economy. This is the central finding of Arup’s Gridunlocked macroeconomic study, conducted in collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics.
By modelling two investment scenarios, our study reveals that if ambitious, supercharged grid investment – aligned with the UK’s net zero trajectory - is sustained until 2040, billions in economic value could be unlocked, as well as 92,000 extra jobs in the UK each year.
In simple terms, if we collectively invest wisely, design boldly, and deliver with purpose, we can unlock significant social and economic gains as well as a more secure, affordable and clean energy system for all.
“Renewable generation is coming online rapidly, as the UK shifts from large, centralised power stations to a more diverse mix of decentralised and new locations of clean power generation”.
Renewable generation is coming online rapidly, as the UK shifts from large, centralised power stations to a more diverse mix of decentralised and new locations of clean power generation. And at the same time, electricity demand is rising as transport, heating and industry electrify and new forms of digital infrastructure such as data centres emerge. Yet much of the UK’s grid was built for a different era. In 2024 alone, £1.3 billion of renewable energy was curtailed because the network could not fully accommodate the power – a clear sign that constraints are already limiting progress.
According to our “supercharged” model, an additional £34 billion investment in the electricity grid over the next 15 years enables the UK to realise far greater value across the whole economy by 2040:
• £95 billion GVA for services, including technology, finance and education
• £33 billion GVA for property
• £20 billion GVA for construction
• £20 billion GVA for electricity sector
- Growth spread across manufacturing, agriculture and water
Meanwhile, sectors dependent on fossil fuels inevitably contract, reflecting the shift to a cleaner future. If all is achieved, this represents a 4:1 return on investment – a compelling case for acting decisively and at scale.
“Under a supercharged pathway, the UK could support 68,000 additional jobs in services each year. Grid investment alone will not unlock the full benefits of the energy transition. The UK needs a joined-up, programmatic approach to the planning and delivery of projects across generation, storage, transmission, distribution, and demand side flexibility. Such coordination can reduce total system costs and improve reliability through greater operational and economic synergies”.
One of the key findings is the scale of job creation linked directly to grid investment. Under a supercharged pathway, the UK could support 68,000 additional jobs in services each year. The construction sector could gain around 14,000 jobs, with property gaining 6000 annually, as well as thousands more in industry, manufacturing, power and agriculture.
These could be highly skilled, high in demand roles including electricians, offshore technicians and energy specialists, which aligns with the UK Government’s Clean Energy Jobs Plan. Crucially, many of these jobs created will be in coastal and post-industrial communities, supporting regional regeneration and new local career pathways.
Economic value is just one part of the story. In 2024, the UK’s dependence on imported energy rose to 43.8%, while curtailment costs of £1.3 billion inflated consumer bills.
Modernising the grid will reduce reliance on unabated gas, shielding businesses and consumers from global price volatility. The recent US-Iran conflict has only amplified the existing volatility and underscores the need to reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks. Modernising will not only enable households to adopt EVs and heat pumps with confidence, but ultimately strengthen energy security, supporting the development of a more diverse, decentralised, and resilient system.
Grid investment alone will not unlock the full benefits of the energy transition. The UK needs a joined-up, programmatic approach to the planning and delivery of projects across generation, storage, transmission, distribution, and demand side flexibility. Such coordination can reduce total system costs and improve reliability through greater operational and economic synergies.
However, the interdependencies of delivering a whole system transformation are complex: policy, finance, technical design, supply chains, environmental and community considerations all intersect. Strategic coordination across these interfaces is essential to sustain momentum and maximise socioeconomic value. The report is clear that without this alignment, the UK risks slower delivery, higher costs and missed opportunities.
Community engagement is just as critical. Early, transparent involvement that builds trust will ensure local voices shape infrastructure that will ultimately serve them. When this is done well, consent can be quicker, social value is strengthened and public support for the transition deepens. We have seen the power of a programmatic approach in the way National Grid has established the Great Grid Partnership as a delivery vehicle for its major transmission upgrades. This is enabling early procurement, standardised design and modern methods of construction to reduce costs and speed up delivery. When investment is coordinated and delivery is carefully orchestrated, ambition becomes achievable.
The scale of opportunity is significant but unlocking it depends on how we choose to deliver the transition from here. If we invest wisely, design boldly and deliver with purpose, the electricity grid can become the backbone of a more secure, more affordable and cleaner energy future. The next few years will be critical, and the choices we make today - about coordination, ambition and delivery - will determine whether the UK realises the full economic and social benefits that electrification can unlock.
Mark Neller is Arup’s Energy Leader for UK, India, Middle East and Africa.